If the SEO results you expect to achieve next year depend on your current actions (or inactions), many SEOs desire long-term success and immediate gratification.

They aspire to secure lasting success yet frequently find themselves tempted by quick but unsustainable routes to get there.

Here’s why fixing trailing indicators such as “traffic” or “trials” can be a misstep and how to enhance your ability to anticipate future SEO success by concentrating on inputs and leading indicators instead.

 

Why ‘Traffic’ and ‘Trials’ Are Poor Indicators of SEO Progress

 

Traffic, trials, leads, and sales are undoubtedly appealing. They represent tangible success and financial gains. Witnessing those charts steadily climb upward can make SEO professionals feel they’re on top of the world, not facing setbacks.

However, it’s this very mindset that can often undermine your long-term return on investment.

It’s akin to embarking on a journey to a new destination while keeping your gaze fixed on the rearview mirror.

You become so fixated on the outcome (traffic) that you inadvertently neglect what propels future performance (the inputs).

Traffic, leads, demos, opt-ins, and sales are all trailing indicators. In essence, they are the consequences of prior efforts. They signify the result, much like the reading on a scale, rather than the actions that steer you towards your desired future state, such as calories consumed, sugar intake, or miles walked.

Because these indicators lag, it often means you’re looking at outdated data by the time they start showing results.

The added challenge is that “traffic” and “sales” often lag not just a few days or weeks after publishing a new article but frequently over several years.

Allow me to illustrate this with a straightforward example. Everyone is familiar with monday.com; they virtually dominate the digital “project management” sphere. Nevertheless, it took them more than two years, along with several unsuccessful attempts, to eventually secure a dominant position for the highly lucrative keyword in their field, “project management software.” This outcome should come as no surprise.

This trend is even more pronounced for lesser-known brands, which most SEOs typically deal with.

Now, let’s ground this in reality. Imagine a relatively new app emerging from beta with some financial resources but virtually no organic search traffic. This means minimal unbranded/nonbranded traffic and no established topical authority. At this point, Google is unaware of the site’s existence.

Yet, over time, the same upward-trending charts that translate into success for SEO professionals lead us to ponder: What does this signify?

Does it imply that the first year of SEO failed and the second year was a triumph? Not at all. Nothing fundamentally changed. That’s precisely why it eventually “miraculously worked” after over 12 months.

Here’s an explanation of why this occurs and how to replicate this success on your website.

You Can Predict SEO Success by Emphasizing Inputs, Not Outcomes

No, you can’t guarantee SEO success, but you can forecast it with a high degree of accuracy.

The key, however, lies in knowing where to direct your attention.

As demonstrated earlier, the answer lies in something other than measuring traffic, trials, or booked demos.

According to the Advanced Web Rankings CTR study, approximately 70-80% of users click on the top five search results. In simpler terms, only the top five ranking results witness the delayed impacts of traffic, leads, and sales surging in their analytics.

SEO is a zero-sum game where one’s gain is another’s loss. This implies that only a tiny fraction of those publishing content will ever achieve substantial outcomes.

On the flip side, this also means that the reverse is true. If you rank in the 10th position, you might only capture less than 1% of the potential traffic.

While this might seem discouraging, it’s a positive sign.

Beneath the surface, your SEO campaign is making progress. The underlying forces and trends are gradually converging, leaving no doubt that it’s just a matter of time until your website experiences a significant surge in traffic.

Strangely, this is precisely when most individuals become restless, lose patience, become diverted by other superficial or trailing metrics, and prematurely abandon the project.

Herein lies the substantial paradox of SEO that many are aware of but tend to overlook:

1. You require a significant website to rank well for valuable keywords; however…
2. You need to rank well for valuable keywords to develop a substantial website.

 

Step 1: Recognize and Leverage Existing Promising Assets

 

The “beachhead principle” is a straightforward strategy that aids mid-sized websites in competing and ultimately dominating highly competitive categories. This approach allows you to balance achieving short-term and long-term results. It sets the bar high for securing long-term visibility on a valuable pillar keyword or page, all while utilizing supporting pages to rank for less competitive variations or long-tail concepts swiftly.

The real key is that there are no hidden secrets. Your objective is to identify areas where you may already possess some topical authority or have made progress and then capitalize on them promptly.

For instance, when we acquired Wordable, we closely examined content pieces that were already displaying some level of success. We specifically focused on organic search traffic and quickly noticed a clear trend: Some of the most significant traffic contributors in the initial stages were articles related to “Google Docs.”

This alignment with the product is a promising sign. Admittedly, most of this content targets users in the early stages of the buying journey, offering little purchase intent. However, it garners higher traffic volumes and faces less competition, making it more manageable to rank for.

That’s our beachhead established.

 

Step 2: Timing is Everything in Targeting Keywords

 

If the goal is to establish a sizable website before vying for the top positions in our industry, it means we must begin by gaining visibility on something—anything!

At this juncture, you’re managing your payback period. You must secure some quick victories and short-term return on investment while positioning yourself for long-term ROI in the years to come.

Initially, we’ll concentrate on amplifying the quality and quantity of content related to our established beachhead. It’s only later that we’ll shift our focus toward more competitive and commercially valuable terms that will eventually yield substantial seven-to-eight-figure returns.

How can you be sure you’re choosing the right keywords at the right time? Consider the “time to rank.”

If you publish a page that transitions from being “not indexed” to ranking number four within a week or two, you’re on the right track. It’s relatively straightforward.

Now, envision this same effect unfolding over another year. This is when the trailing indicators finally begin to take effect. While it’s a noteworthy start, it won’t generate the substantial ROI that will eventually add extra zeros to your profit and loss statement.

Here’s the next step in the process.

 

Step 3: Cultivate Long-Term ROI Through Patience and Method

 

Didn’t go from being unindexed to reaching the fourth position in a mere week?

The preceding example represents an optimal outcome, requiring years of seasoned SEO expertise.

Now, let’s delve into a more typical scenario. You release a piece of content, and within one to two weeks, it secures a position within the range of 10 to 20. This is indeed promising!

Over a decade of experience spanning numerous websites has taught me that transitioning from “no index” to page two within a few weeks strongly correlates with future top SERP rankings.

The only difference is that it might necessitate more time. The key is to double down on the same process persistently.

Here’s how this scenario unfolds in practice:

Observe the approximately six-month “wilderness” phase highlighted in the yellow box below, during which the page fluctuates in relative obscurity. It remains unnoticed, and hardly anyone, except you and Google, knows its existence.

Fast forward to the present day, and the green box illustrates a stable, prominent top-5 position.

This progress persisted despite various SERP upheavals, including an influx of subpar AI-generated content and algorithm updates that prioritize helpful content.

The caveat? It took a little over two years to materialize!

Hence, it’s crucial to maintain trust in the process:

1. Concentrate on inputs, not just outputs.
2. Exercise patience while the waves on the horizon continue to take shape.

Here’s one final example that illustrates this intricate balancing act. The beachhead principle depicted below is beginning to yield results, with more minor and less competitive queries gradually securing high rankings. Simultaneously, we await the more significant, competitive queries to catch up.

The content highlighted in green represents your less competitive, support-oriented posts or top-of-funnel content, which are beginning to secure top-five rankings. On the other hand, the content highlighted in yellow, more lucrative or higher-volume in nature, remains just outside the target range.

If you solely focus on trailing indicators, the former appears as a “success,” while the latter may seem like a “failure.”

However, as you have witnessed, this perspective needs to be revised or corrected.

The genuine success in SEO quantified in terms of financial results, unfolds over years of steadfast execution. The ROI of SEO is akin to a long-lasting marathon, in stark contrast to the short-lived sprints such as referral or ad traffic that lead to transient arbitrage spikes that vanish almost as rapidly as they appear.

 

Your SEO Strategy Is Effective – Shift Your Attention from ‘Traffic’ and ‘Trials’

 

There’s no denying that quick SEO victories are both attainable and essential. They not only bolster your confidence but also provide your superiors or clients with a sense of assurance in your expertise.

However, it’s crucial to refrain from fixating on traffic and trial metrics, as these are trailing indicators that merely validate what you should have already known over a year ago when embarking on this path.

Instead, redirect your focus towards the inputs and leading indicators that enable you to anticipate when your campaigns display promise more accurately.

To the inexperienced observer, it might initially appear like you face failure.

However, absolute failure only transpires when you prematurely discontinue your efforts before all those trailing indicators finally come to fruition.

If you’re still grappling with complexity and confusion, explore our monthly SEO packages and let our team of experts provide the assistance you need.