SEO projections are becoming a common request from businesses, and it’s easy to see why. SEO demands significant resources, and decision-makers want clarity on the returns they can expect.
But let’s face it—predicting organic growth is anything but straightforward. With countless variables at play, such as:
- Algorithm updates
- SERP volatility
- Fluctuating CTRs
- Implementation delays
…you’re often working with educated guesses rather than certainties.
So, how can SEO professionals deliver credible projections without overpromising?
This guide walks you through a step-by-step process for creating SEO projections with precision. It also explores two alternative methods for navigating tricky ROI conversations when hard numbers are elusive.
The Step-by-Step Process for SEO Projections
A robust projection starts with a structured, data-driven approach. Here’s how to break it down:
1. Compile Relevant Keywords, Search Volumes, and Rankings
Start by gathering all keywords the site currently ranks for, along with their monthly search volume (MSV) and current position. Remove irrelevant keywords to avoid inflating projections.
2. Calculate Click-Through Rates by Position
Click-through rates (CTR) vary dramatically by ranking. For instance, Position 1 garners significantly higher CTRs than Position 12. While industry-specific CTRs are ideal, general benchmarks are a strong starting point.
3. Estimate Traffic Using CTR and MSV
Multiply each keyword’s MSV by its CTR to calculate its current traffic contribution. This serves as a baseline to measure future growth.
4. Predict Rank Improvements and New Traffic
Based on your SEO strategy, estimate potential ranking improvements and calculate the traffic gains from these higher positions. Remember, these are assumptions, so stay realistic.
5. Align on Key Metrics: Conversion Rate and Value
Work with your client to define metrics like average conversion rate and average conversion value. Use analytics data or business-provided numbers to avoid misalignment.
For example:
- Conversion rate: 2%
- Average order value: $150
6. Calculate New Conversions from Traffic Gains
Multiply the total projected new traffic by the average conversion rate. Example:
5,260 new visits x 2% conversion rate = 105 new monthly conversions
7. Project Revenue from New Conversions
Multiply the number of new conversions by the average order value. Example:
105 conversions x $150 average order value = $15,750 monthly revenue
8. Overlay New Traffic on Current Performance
Factor in the site’s existing traffic and trends when layering projections. This ensures your estimates reflect realistic timelines for ranking improvements and performance gains.
Alternative Methods for Showcasing ROI
If hard projections feel like a stretch, consider these approaches:
1. Scenario-Based Forecasting
Present multiple “what-if” scenarios, such as:
- Conservative: Minimal ranking improvements
- Moderate: Expected gains
- Aggressive: Best-case scenario
This approach highlights potential outcomes without promising specific results.
2. Focus on Historical Case Studies
Leverage past successes as a proxy for potential performance. Sharing examples of traffic and revenue growth achieved for similar clients can build confidence without committing to exact numbers.
Key Caveats to Communicate
Every projection involves assumptions. Be upfront about variables like:
- The rate of ranking improvement
- CTR fluctuations
- Conversion rate stability
- Business implementation speed
By setting expectations clearly, you avoid overpromising and maintain credibility.
Ready to Make Your SEO Projections?
SEO projections are as much about the process as the numbers themselves. With this framework, you’ll not only provide realistic forecasts but also build trust by showcasing your strategic approach.
Now, it’s your turn—start crafting your own SEO projections and watch your strategies take shape!
If you’re feeling overwhelmed or unsure where to start, let our experts take the reins! Explore our monthly SEO packages and watch your online presence thrive effortlessly.
